This Tuesday Morning eye opener: 5 most shorted stocks through LocateStock.com
LCC- Airline companies are always subject to some looming disaster. Theres fuel prices rising, theres security cost increases, global credit crunch making debt more expensive and more inaccessible, further increasing costs of operation, then throw in less consumer spending, less domestic travel, and the added burden for US Airways that they will probably see a significant decrease in their Europe – US flights. The plunging Euro against the US Dollar will make the promise of going to the US and buying almost half price goods a lot less attractive. Its made a nice comeback from 2 -10 in a solid 12 month time frame. Long Term debt up 50% in 2 years, other debt labeled Short/Current Long Term Debt coupled with Liabilities of 770M up from 117M in 2007, an increase of better than 600%. IT appears they have 9.50 in cash on hand but a 10% increase to the already negative Net Tangible Assets. A number advancing into negative territory is typically not representative of positive results. Cheap Euro, Higher oil prices, could spell retracement of LCC
CWTR
Cold Water Creek, no not the ice cream company. That Coldstone Creamery, heavy exposure to retail, through their 365 retail apparel and merchandise shops and a reliance on e commerce the bears seem to think the stock has some room to the downside. The company has decreased its debt load a bit and seems to have survived the single dip.
WYNN
Up 20% in 2 weeks. Up 50% in 2 quarters, a whopping 300% meteoric rise in a single fiscal year, all thanks to decreased debt load, increased cash on hand and destinations to the East projecting golden goose like returns. A TV Commentator recently said that people sleep good at night investing in Steve WYNN. The stock looks to Macau with high hopes but more and more of any uptick from International business will be need to stave off the growing dilemma casinos are facing in a crumbling Vegas. Housings in crisis, according to Seeking Aplha Contributor Micheal T. Snyder, ( http://seekingalpha.com/author/michael-t-snyder) “Unemployment is up around 14.2%” and that’s right in the heart of town, the state rate is 13.7%. Come to think of it Nevada Munis are probably a bad bet right now, as its estimated that “the vast majority of homes in Nevada are worth less than they what they owe. Ouch. “The National average for “underwater homes” is a historical record of 24%, but dwarfed by Nevadas average of 65%. With the infrastructure decaying in Vegas and room occupancies, and layoffs at the casinos. All that glitters for WYNN may not be gold, and the stock looks like it could comfortably trade at a near term support level of 75, if 3X book holds true for WYNN. The 3X book seems to work for bigger sector mate LVS whos trading at a slight premium to cash at 6 ½ times, than WYNN who is holding at only 6 times their cash. With a 25% pop in the last month LVS could be a downside play for the short term as well.
XLF
With the financial stocks breathing a sigh of relief that they are only facing 19Billion in new taxes financial stocks rose. What?? Yep you heard it, they try to slip it by you….only 19Billion? This coupled with whole sectors vulnerability. The Stress Tests ordered on US Banks, hypothesized a 10.2% unemployment rate as a worst case scenario that could trigger a need for further recapitalization of the banks. Some shorts are playing the XLF Financial ETF as a bet against the sector rather than picking and choosing individual financial stocks.
The Sleeper
HRBN
Its been popping up lately and the stock trades thin every so often the stock has fits of volume where the shorts seem to find some depth of market. The company Harbin electric out of Harbin China sells electric motors, and micro motors, through a chain of subsidiaries. The stock seems to be approaching a near term rest level of $16. the company has exposure to the auto industry as the motors they manufacture are used in the electric powered seats in cars. Any double dip creates these type of unintended consequences.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Friday, June 25, 2010
Bulls, Bears, and Tennis Balls
Well it looks like all the Tabacco Bros are having very busy Fridays, so as JT’s intern, I (Brandon) will give my best shot at informing/entertaining the masses today.
An Endless Volley
Yesterday John Isner and Nicolas Mahut completed their 11 hour, 5 minute tennis match, the longest match in tennis history. It was a battle of endurance and finesse, a physical and mental tug of war...
An Endless Volley
Yesterday John Isner and Nicolas Mahut completed their 11 hour, 5 minute tennis match, the longest match in tennis history. It was a battle of endurance and finesse, a physical and mental tug of war...
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Enjoy the 10,000s While You Can
So where are we at? Every single economic indicator is overheating to the red side, and the bears have completed a market renovation that generated the opposite effect of raising the roof. The bears seem to have lowered the roof from 11,200 to 10,200. A rangy market should now run up against resistance at the 10,000 level.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
The Devilish Details of the Double Dipper
When I think of Double Dippers, I think of the friend of a friend that shows up to the bar to watch Football on Sunday. He grabs a Mozzarella Stick, dips it in the marinara sauce, takes a bite, looks around, and dunks the bit end back into the sauce. Gross. We all know that no one likes a double dipper. No one.
The Morning Eye Opener
Every single one of yesterday's hot shorts saw gains for the bears yesterday, and they averaged a 4.3% return open to close. You'd be crazy not to check out these hot shorts in today's Morning Eye Opener:
DNDN - Dendreon was the darling of bio tech bettors. They bought in, they watched as the results came in, they hyped it, they ran it, they hoped and prayed that the FDA would finally approve Provenge, the first ever vaccine to fight cancer. And then it happened. Unlike so many other bio techs that never get that highly sought after approval, they did it. They got the approval. Way back when, the stock shot up 10 points in a couple of days on the big news. Problem is, the stock was priced as if it were already approved before it got approved, and besides some news momentum and retail hysteria, the stock traded down on the news. There was recently some decent news that Aetna would cover the expensive prostate cancer treatment, but the devils in the details. There is some fine print that the patient must be on hormone treatment for 3 months so there will be a defined lag before sales can actually start being reflected or at least collected. To me it’s a buy the rumor sell the news and the stock could trade back into $30 territory in the near term.
AIG - There is absolutely no reason to own AIG , and to me and many of my bearish brethren, this stock is really a $1.75 stock on steroids, the steroids being a reverse split.
They lost a deal to bring in some cash and sell the Asian unit, there is talk of them needing more cash, and the possibility that they will be investigated to see how they got all the sweetheart deals they did during the Hank Paulson Bailout Nation Tour. The stock is up 15% in the last couple weeks on no news. The stocks a pig, too bad we the people are the shareholders.
WYNN – Wynn Resorts is another stock that rises for no particular reason, other than Steve Wynn’s being a proven Winner. Someone said on one of the TV shoes the other day that people who invest with Steve Wynn sleep well at night, and it made sense. The Wynn brand is a good one, but the problem is the stock has seen enormous upside in a bad economy. Most of its recent positive performance is on the hopes of Asian growth, and renewed Travel spending. My issue with this is business travel is still down and getting worse, people are maxed on credit so they cannot even book flights, air travel is hurt, fares are rising, and domestic travel seems to be shrinking along with most peoples disposable income. LVS was another one we have seen lately, but WYNN’s 20% gain in two weeks makes it a much more attractive play.
CSIQ - Solars Suck—Too much supply out there still, not enough demand, the global market place for Solar is reliant on Government programs to rebate buyers. Most of the big European government programs like Germany and Spain from two years back, are either cancelled, or if still in effect, significantly curtailed. The market is flooded with supply, the demand for alt energy is severely diminished, and the Solar Bulls have their tails between their legs. Many of the solars are overheated.
CHCO - A meteoric rise for City Holding from the March 2009 lows of 20 to its top of 37 at Aprils end is seemingly ending, and the fall back to the 20’s could be double the speed. It took City Holdings 14 months to rise almost 80%, and it could give it all back in a matter of weeks, depending on how this Financial Reform bill shakes out. Apparently one detail in the bank reform pieces of legislation floating around DC is that those annoying overdraft and service fees that all our banks keep whacking us with are going to be sliced and diced. This is good for the consumer, bad for the banks that rely on these fees for a big part of their revenue. City Holding will be severely hammered by the power of the legislative gavel. 28% of CHCO operating revenue is tied to fees, and they could see up to a 20% decrease in Revs if the bill cuts fees substantially. This sleeper could be sleepin with the fishes. In the l0w 20’s it’s a value play again.
DNDN - Dendreon was the darling of bio tech bettors. They bought in, they watched as the results came in, they hyped it, they ran it, they hoped and prayed that the FDA would finally approve Provenge, the first ever vaccine to fight cancer. And then it happened. Unlike so many other bio techs that never get that highly sought after approval, they did it. They got the approval. Way back when, the stock shot up 10 points in a couple of days on the big news. Problem is, the stock was priced as if it were already approved before it got approved, and besides some news momentum and retail hysteria, the stock traded down on the news. There was recently some decent news that Aetna would cover the expensive prostate cancer treatment, but the devils in the details. There is some fine print that the patient must be on hormone treatment for 3 months so there will be a defined lag before sales can actually start being reflected or at least collected. To me it’s a buy the rumor sell the news and the stock could trade back into $30 territory in the near term.
AIG - There is absolutely no reason to own AIG , and to me and many of my bearish brethren, this stock is really a $1.75 stock on steroids, the steroids being a reverse split.
They lost a deal to bring in some cash and sell the Asian unit, there is talk of them needing more cash, and the possibility that they will be investigated to see how they got all the sweetheart deals they did during the Hank Paulson Bailout Nation Tour. The stock is up 15% in the last couple weeks on no news. The stocks a pig, too bad we the people are the shareholders.
WYNN – Wynn Resorts is another stock that rises for no particular reason, other than Steve Wynn’s being a proven Winner. Someone said on one of the TV shoes the other day that people who invest with Steve Wynn sleep well at night, and it made sense. The Wynn brand is a good one, but the problem is the stock has seen enormous upside in a bad economy. Most of its recent positive performance is on the hopes of Asian growth, and renewed Travel spending. My issue with this is business travel is still down and getting worse, people are maxed on credit so they cannot even book flights, air travel is hurt, fares are rising, and domestic travel seems to be shrinking along with most peoples disposable income. LVS was another one we have seen lately, but WYNN’s 20% gain in two weeks makes it a much more attractive play.
CSIQ - Solars Suck—Too much supply out there still, not enough demand, the global market place for Solar is reliant on Government programs to rebate buyers. Most of the big European government programs like Germany and Spain from two years back, are either cancelled, or if still in effect, significantly curtailed. The market is flooded with supply, the demand for alt energy is severely diminished, and the Solar Bulls have their tails between their legs. Many of the solars are overheated.
CHCO - A meteoric rise for City Holding from the March 2009 lows of 20 to its top of 37 at Aprils end is seemingly ending, and the fall back to the 20’s could be double the speed. It took City Holdings 14 months to rise almost 80%, and it could give it all back in a matter of weeks, depending on how this Financial Reform bill shakes out. Apparently one detail in the bank reform pieces of legislation floating around DC is that those annoying overdraft and service fees that all our banks keep whacking us with are going to be sliced and diced. This is good for the consumer, bad for the banks that rely on these fees for a big part of their revenue. City Holding will be severely hammered by the power of the legislative gavel. 28% of CHCO operating revenue is tied to fees, and they could see up to a 20% decrease in Revs if the bill cuts fees substantially. This sleeper could be sleepin with the fishes. In the l0w 20’s it’s a value play again.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
China In Charge
Recently, I have pointedly described how China is basically playing with the Global Markets. They are the biggest holder of US Treasuries, or second biggest depending how you look at it, yet they aren’t buying anymore...
The Morning Eye Opener
In an effort to continue with the expansion of The Daily Short Report, we’ll be changing the way in which we deliver you all the information TDSR has to offer. To start, the Morning Eye Opener will give a look at the hot shorts being requested through the LocateStock platform before the market opens, to offer our dedicated followers the opportunity to get in on their short positions at the market open. Following this, JT’s market commentary, which has become the staple of this blog, will be released. Finally, an analysis of the Hottest Short will be presented, for those looking for technical data/research on one of the securities we had listed pre-market. We would love to hear what you, our dedicated readers, think about this new method of information delivery; we hope it will make The Daily Short Report more useful to those who value its information and insight.
The Morning Eye Opener
BIDU - Baidu Corp has enjoyed the benefits of no competition in the China Search space for a bit now and the stock has performed unbelievably. But with a 15% spike in the last 2 weeks, the shorts seem to think that the Bids may be disappearing quick for BIDU and the stock could see a retracement in the near term. The downside stop outs are $67, and with any macro pressure $63 could be a resting place.
FSLR - First Solar has been the bell weather of the Solar stocks, as the run in the sun seems to conincide with Oil prices, as the costs of Crude jumps so does the sentiment that alternative energy sources will be in demand. Thus the Solars seem to be moving in tight correlation with Crude prices. The trade oil up solars up seems to be a continuing theme. The shorts have been able to isolate a trade in FSLR where each time the stock has a 20% move to the upside on news or forward looking statements the shorts enter and play the stock to the 102-105 range. Right now at $120 and change, the sunny days seem to be over for the solar bulls.
DO - Diamond Offshore is caught up in the BP mess. Even though they aren’t the provider of the Deepwater horizon rig, the Obama-torium on deep water drilling means the global supply of deepwater rigs is up and demand in the gulf is Zero. So high supply, no demand means revenues effected. This means the Rig operators need to either move the rigs elsewhere, (which will be costly) or let them sit dormant and hope the moratorium is lifted. Neither option means higher profits. Stock could break under $55 and free fall a bit from there.
IFLG - InfoLogix Small cap stocks with big news tend to have substantial jumps. When theres a significant jump in one of these little guys the after effect is usually a return to the lower prices shortly after the news. The old axiom exists here, buy the rumor---sell the news. IFLG’s recently announced deal to provide voice enabled mobile solutions to SAP customers sounds great and it’s a big deal for IFLG long term, but the
Stock has doubled in under a month and that usually is fertile ground to find downside profits.
BANR - Banner Bank Holdings The regional banks continue to be under pressure. Banner just announced an offering to raise cash to meet reserve requirements and this dilution could push the stock even lower, before turning back up and feeling the benefits of the raise.
The Morning Eye Opener
BIDU - Baidu Corp has enjoyed the benefits of no competition in the China Search space for a bit now and the stock has performed unbelievably. But with a 15% spike in the last 2 weeks, the shorts seem to think that the Bids may be disappearing quick for BIDU and the stock could see a retracement in the near term. The downside stop outs are $67, and with any macro pressure $63 could be a resting place.
FSLR - First Solar has been the bell weather of the Solar stocks, as the run in the sun seems to conincide with Oil prices, as the costs of Crude jumps so does the sentiment that alternative energy sources will be in demand. Thus the Solars seem to be moving in tight correlation with Crude prices. The trade oil up solars up seems to be a continuing theme. The shorts have been able to isolate a trade in FSLR where each time the stock has a 20% move to the upside on news or forward looking statements the shorts enter and play the stock to the 102-105 range. Right now at $120 and change, the sunny days seem to be over for the solar bulls.
DO - Diamond Offshore is caught up in the BP mess. Even though they aren’t the provider of the Deepwater horizon rig, the Obama-torium on deep water drilling means the global supply of deepwater rigs is up and demand in the gulf is Zero. So high supply, no demand means revenues effected. This means the Rig operators need to either move the rigs elsewhere, (which will be costly) or let them sit dormant and hope the moratorium is lifted. Neither option means higher profits. Stock could break under $55 and free fall a bit from there.
IFLG - InfoLogix Small cap stocks with big news tend to have substantial jumps. When theres a significant jump in one of these little guys the after effect is usually a return to the lower prices shortly after the news. The old axiom exists here, buy the rumor---sell the news. IFLG’s recently announced deal to provide voice enabled mobile solutions to SAP customers sounds great and it’s a big deal for IFLG long term, but the
Stock has doubled in under a month and that usually is fertile ground to find downside profits.
BANR - Banner Bank Holdings The regional banks continue to be under pressure. Banner just announced an offering to raise cash to meet reserve requirements and this dilution could push the stock even lower, before turning back up and feeling the benefits of the raise.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Father's Day Follies
Welcome back everyone. If you’re a Dad, Happy belated Fathers Day. Hopefully by now, you have stored away the new golf shirts you got yesterday, you have on the new tie the kids or the mother in law got you, and you have found a spot to prominently display the construction paper creation the kids made for you...
Friday, June 18, 2010
Bitchin' Witchin's got the Bears Itchin'
Once a quarter on the 3rd Friday the Market Freaks come out: ghosts, goblins, and yes, even witches. No, this isn’t some Halloween story or something, it’s a stock market newsletter, so let me explain…
Thursday, June 17, 2010
A Good Pocket Knife
Before launching into my daily tirade on why our markets are so poor right now, I want to toss out a kettle of kudos to Brother Todd, for ably filling in yesterday and producing an insightful and intelligent Daily Short Report in my absence. I thoroughly enjoyed it, and I hope you all did as well.
There continues to be a Spanish murmur going through the markets that Spain, with 20% unemployment and a pissed off populous, cannot cut its way back to prosperity, and will any day admit to the world that it needs a lifeline...
There continues to be a Spanish murmur going through the markets that Spain, with 20% unemployment and a pissed off populous, cannot cut its way back to prosperity, and will any day admit to the world that it needs a lifeline...
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Slick Golden Pirates
JT’s Leavin on Jet Plane...
Don’t know when he'll will be back again, but until he is, I, Todd Tabacco, will be holding down the fort. While I may not possess the same writing acumen as big bro, I’ll at least give you the hot shorts for the day and a little commentary...
Don’t know when he'll will be back again, but until he is, I, Todd Tabacco, will be holding down the fort. While I may not possess the same writing acumen as big bro, I’ll at least give you the hot shorts for the day and a little commentary...
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Junk in the Trunk (ft. The Kackler)
After a couple of weeks of positive punditry, where commentators far and wide have waxed poetically about how well the EU Stimulus package has stabilized Greece, the back end of the story seems to be holding the truth...
Monday, June 14, 2010
Bears Feasting on Bank Stress and BS Bailouts
Stress: The consequence of the failure of an organism to respond to emotional or physical threats, actual or imagined.
There are voluminous reasons to believe that, while the markets are distracted by the gross mismanagement of various Euro Nations, the US Banking system is still experiencing significant degrees of stress. While various US Governmental programs have pumped cash into the failing behemoths like terminal patients, the patients (banks) seem to still be facing the same mortal fate as the rest of us....
There are voluminous reasons to believe that, while the markets are distracted by the gross mismanagement of various Euro Nations, the US Banking system is still experiencing significant degrees of stress. While various US Governmental programs have pumped cash into the failing behemoths like terminal patients, the patients (banks) seem to still be facing the same mortal fate as the rest of us....
Friday, June 11, 2010
Tabacco - Short Stupid A$$ Idiot MOFO
I thought for this fabulous Friday I would share with my friends and loyal readers some of the feedback I frequently receive from the public.The Daily Short Report and my frequent TV appearances have really generated a wide range of fan feedback. Today I will share the good, the bad and the ugly...
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Bulls, Bears, & Blackhawks
It’s been a rough year for Chicago on the whole. Their Governor, Blago, got indicted for trying to sell Obama’s old Senate Seat, which will probably land him behind bars, looking as guilty as this murdering thug Joran Vandersloot. Obama is certainly not doing his hometown any favors with his Presidential performance...
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Keys to the Game
Take Warren Buffet, the BP team of scientists, the a$$ kickin president’s economics team, the smartest minds from the US Banks, and still there seems to be no remedy in sight for the economic duress the US equity markets are facing...
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
A$$ Kickin' Iphone and Fool's Gold
Today, when you look at your Iphone to check on the latest BP oil spill news, or to see some highlights of the Lakers/Celtics game, you will be looking at a product you probably recently bought which is now officially obsolete. Steve Jobs, and
his Apple-opoly, have introduced the next generation Iphone, while most Iphone users, are still walking around on a last-gen model...
his Apple-opoly, have introduced the next generation Iphone, while most Iphone users, are still walking around on a last-gen model...
Monday, June 7, 2010
D-Day, Loan Sharks, and Two Tims
D-Day
Typically in the US, the term D-Day is synonymous with June 6, 1944. This was the day that US and Allied troops stormed the beaches of Normandy, to take Europe back from the Nazis...
Typically in the US, the term D-Day is synonymous with June 6, 1944. This was the day that US and Allied troops stormed the beaches of Normandy, to take Europe back from the Nazis...Friday, June 4, 2010
Grey Matter
The Liesmans Secret
There is a growing phenomena which is blatant and yet totally ignored by CNBC, except for Rick Santelli. Steve Liesman has the uncanny knack of taking any piece of soberingly brutal data, and finding a positive nugget in it to highlight. Leisman obviously subscribes to The Secret...
There is a growing phenomena which is blatant and yet totally ignored by CNBC, except for Rick Santelli. Steve Liesman has the uncanny knack of taking any piece of soberingly brutal data, and finding a positive nugget in it to highlight. Leisman obviously subscribes to The Secret...
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Market Reality 101
Good Morning, Classmates. As the economy continues to spit out horrific stats, the major business tv coverage continues to hold its nose, cover its eyes, and say all good things. Yesterday, the Great Changer, President Obama, was threatening the fat cats again...
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Straight A's
My daughters are 11 and 8, both have better than 95% averages in school, and neither has less than a 90% grade in any class. This is what I call a Straight A student. Thank Goodness my wife has a Masters Degree in Education, I can stake no claim to my kids stellar academic performance. I personally graduated High School with an 80% average, and college with a whopping 2.0. In fact, I loved college so much, I spent an extra year at the bucolic St. Johns University Staten Island Campus. Ah academia….
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Back to Life -- Back to reality...
Back to Life -- Back to reality...
The British group Soul 2 Soul said it best back in the 80’s, and just to get your morning started with a little muz-ak remember that today reality is upon us…
After a three day recess full of family fun in the sun, it’s a tough task to get back to the grind. But reality is upon friends and it isn’t a pretty. If you take into account the tumbleweeds rolling down Wall Street on Thursday and Friday some might say its been a 5 day Siesta for the markets, only prolonging the inevitable beating awaiting in reality land this week.
The British group Soul 2 Soul said it best back in the 80’s, and just to get your morning started with a little muz-ak remember that today reality is upon us…
After a three day recess full of family fun in the sun, it’s a tough task to get back to the grind. But reality is upon friends and it isn’t a pretty. If you take into account the tumbleweeds rolling down Wall Street on Thursday and Friday some might say its been a 5 day Siesta for the markets, only prolonging the inevitable beating awaiting in reality land this week.
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