Okay Okay, last week, it looked like things could have gotten a lot uglier, and quick if the bears beat the options expiration buying Bulls and closed the Markets in the Red going into the Weekend. To me that woulda been a doozy for this morning. Fortunately some Bulls Blew off their Friday tee times, and stayed around to bust the bears streak. I for one did not.
http://www.bellavistacc.com/default.aspx?p=.NETCEEditorPFSTC&NoNav=1&ID=1471625
Many thanks to Big Jack, and Frankie the Fishman for hosting the day.
Rather than watch the Bears get routed I hit the greens myself, but it wasn’t pretty. My 94 was as ugly, but not as ugly as the beaten the bulls put on the bears to close the week.
The results were a Green close, but one green day does not a recovery make. Short signals say that Fridays up close was strictly expiration based, and there are still no fundamental reasons for a positive outlook. I stick with my 9000 outlook, and going into a vaction weekend the dynamics could set up just right for a Summer Selloff. Don’t just be nimble….Be Quick.
A big fat Greek Nothin’
No good Greek news, no dispelling of the China bubble, nada, nyet, zip, zero, zot nuttin at all in the way of positive news came out this weekend, to carry the rally into this week.
One thing still stoking fear from the short analytics front is the lingering question:…Is the UK about to be exposed as a new victim. The Friday activity reports say you’d be wise to keep that thought on the radar as the Bears seems to be sniffing around (HBC).
RBS also has some interest from the Bear side as the recently announced spending cuts provide a mere drop in the deficit bucket for the struggling Brits, and let us not forget BCS.
US Financials also continue to be favorites of the Bears, with MBI—C--- ABK at the forefront. SECTOR WATCH has the XLF – and KRE (Regional bank Sector ETF) on the short radar.
Bank Bears Prefer Preferreds
Another play seems to be in the Financial Preferreds. Figuring out why it’s more interesting to play the financials short from the preferred side is above my pay grade but I must report that every US financial is getting a glimpse from the Bears on the Preferreds.
Also a ton of Realty plays are surfacing as targeted areas, I will do some more snooping and get back with some good data on the realty stocks and public REITS. WRI—DRE--
Bulls-Bears and Matadors
After months of the Bears getting soundly beaten there has been a two week downturn where the Bears have seemingly got the best of the bull. Not that I’m happy about it.
And even though the Bear represents the short side, when I first hatched the idea to start an electronic platform to help short sellers avoid breaking the law, I wanted a reference to reflect that our customers were against the Bull. I did however want to avoid the cliché of the Bear. There were already plenty of Bear terms out there, Bear Hunter--Bear Raider-- Bear Bear Bear. I thought it through and felt like we were creating a product that not only fought the proverbial market bull, but the Bull$hit that often is associated with Short Selling. Who better to represent that ideology than the MATADOR. http://www.locatestock.com He fights the bull, For 6 years the Matador slaying a bull has stood as the our company Logo, and the platform that supports over 8000 legal short sellers every day is called just that the "MATADOR. Until my friend Jerry told me recently, unbeknownst to me, in some circles I am apparently referred to mockingly as the Matador. I have been called many things,(insert your own thoughts here) but til recently Matador wasn’t one. Being in Stock Loan, and being from Staten Island I have frequently been referred to as the “Loan Shark”, and being I always seem to point out the negatives existing in the markets and single stocks, I have been referred to periodically as the Devils Advocate, and even more recently some of my market commentary has got me fan (loosely used) emails, referring to me as the Devils Advocate minus the Advocate part. A market 9000 call will do that for ya.
In your mouth
Sometimes friends, even in my world the Bulls gotta win, and sometimes he wins big. Friday for example the bull beat the Bear, here in the US Markets. Then Saturday to make matters worse, the bull beat the Matador over in Spain. As ugly as it may be for the bears when the bull beats them in the markets, it doesn’t quite compare to when the bull beats the Matador. But fret not my friends, while Matador Julio Aparicio may have taken the song “put it in your mouth” a little too far, he did get a mouthful of Bull, but he lived. The Matador is expected to make a full recovery.
Juan lives to fight another day, but it surely could have been worse...
Compare the two, and I think you’d agree, if you had to choose, never before has such a convincing case been made for an oral!
Greece is the Word…
Sometimes I get so caught up in this economics stuff, I don’t take a moment to consider that it’s not really so important. Often when I need a reality check my wife is the perfect place to turn. So to reality central I take you… This weekend, I literally read every piece of financial information published to try to really understand what factors are at work in this Global Crisis. WSJ—Fortune—Forbes—TIME—Newsweek—Barrons—you name it I read it as this crisis is getting quite scary and I want to be as informed as possible. In taking a break from drowning myself in the boredom of financial reporting, my wife says to me “why are you doing so much reading this weekend?” “I know you usually pile up the newspapers like the Post and the Journal, but this weekend it’s a lot more what’s up?” So I say well its Greece, this thing is really getting Scary, I wanna be as informed as possible on Greece because it affects a lot of other things. Her reply…..”The Movie? “ http://www.livevideo.com/video/1BB7762461CA4946B6F0B2657B6ACE66/grease-we-go-together.aspx
Nuff said.
A Regular riot
The thing regular Joe Americana doesn’t even realize is the Greeks aren’t rallying and rioting because they are mad at their government for creating unsustainable levels of deficit spending. They aren’t rioting because the Great Papandreou hired GS to create a synthetic transaction to artificially lower the Greek debt to GDP ratio and trick the EU into letting them into the EURO. They aren’t rallying because they have to borrow billions to pay their bills and not sink the Euro Zone. They are rioting because they don’t want austerity measures.. They don’t want to work past 50, they don’t want to lose 14 pay checks for 12 months work, and they seemingly don’t want to consider working harder as a solution, period.
And this is not just a Greek thing, we will see it play out again and again as the European nations who last year were blasting US Banking system and US policy are now faced with something that is just not within the realm of reality to them. WORK
This is why shorts stay focused on the fact that the Global crisis is just beginning, the Eurozone wants to be bailed out, but they don’t want to have their services cut or work more hours.
One of these days, its gonna become abundantly clear that this European mentality of minimal work, with the expectation of handouts to support future generations of global bailouts is not Contained in Greece, and the rest of the PIIGS have the exact same mindset. To quote the philosophical Ralph Kramden, the reality of that is gonna hit us right in the kisser, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IV1zul2aCM8&feature=related
JT Sr.
My father, John A Tabacco, Sr., was a hard working, third generation Irish-Italian, retired NYPD cop, who spoke not a word of Italian. Much to the chagrin of my brother and I, he did however know one single Italian phrase, which he used daily to haunt and taunt my brother and I.
Each day at 645 am in an effort to get my brother Derek and I out of bed, to go to our Summer job of sweeping up at his construction sites, he would incessantly repeat this phrase until we got out of bed. OVER AND OVER, Che dorme non pesce. (pronounced Key Dormay nona besh). I think of it often when times get tough. So should Greece. He Who Sleeps Gets no Fish!
Hey Greece you are supposedly the birthplace of civilization, why don’t ya set an example for everyone else in Europe, and GET TO WORK.
JT
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